Pakistan’s vulnerability is due to its geography. In 1,600 kilometers [990 miles] of latitudinal distance, Pakistan has the [world’s] second-highest peak in the north, to low-elevation land in the south. Any change in global climate impacts Pakistan the most.
Pakistan contributes less than 1% to global carbon emissions, yet it ranks among the most vulnerable to climate change. In recent years, the country has withstood multiple catastrophes—including floods and heat waves—that have killed thousands and affected hundreds of millions. Researchers describe Pakistan’s experience as a mix of “compound”climate effects (multiple hazards hitting together or in close succession) and “sequential” effects (one event intensifying or triggering another). More research is needed so Pakistan—and other countries—can prepare.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
A Deadly Cloudburst and a Community Swept Away
On Aug. 15, a cloudburst dropped more than 150 millimeters of rain in one hour over Buner in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, unleashing a flash flood that swept away homes, hotels, restaurants, and other infrastructure. More than 300 people died.
“The flash flood came from the mountains… I never saw any disaster like that,” resident Tariq Zaman said. “My friend… lost 18 members of his family on a single day.” Torrential rain devastated other northern localities as water rushed from the mountains downstream.
“The flash flood came from the mountains… I never saw any disaster like that,” resident Tariq Zaman said. “My friend… lost 18 members of his family on a single day.” Torrential rain devastated other northern localities as water rushed from the mountains downstream.
Climate scientist Fahad Saeed (Climate Analytics) points to geography: within 1,600 kilometers of latitudinal distance, Pakistan spans from the world’s second-highest peak in the north to low-elevation land in the south. “Any change in global climate impacts Pakistan the most,” he said, noting global temperatures have climbed from +0.9°C in 2015 to +1.2°C today.
Environmental scientist Waqar Ahmed (University of Karachi) underscores that Pakistan sits below the Hindu Kush–Himalaya–Karakoram mountain systems—the planet’s largest non-polar glacier reservoirs—which are also influenced by emissions from China and India, two of the world’s largest emitters. Meteorologist Anjum Zaigham (Pakistan Meteorological Department) said the average temperature in northern Pakistan has risen by 2°C, with this year’s average above 8°C, driving more frequent glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and intense rainfall. A 2024 study found the Hindu Kush–Himalaya–Karakoram region warming faster than the global average.
A Warming Sea and Weather Whiplash
To the south, Pakistan’s 1,050-kilometer Arabian Sea coastline spans Sindh and Balochistan. Research indicates the Arabian Sea is warming faster than expected, altering regional climate and producing severe droughts followed by intense rainfall. Over the past decade, Pakistan’s climate record shows multiple disasters consistent with sequentialeffects.
- June 2015 heat wave: Pakistan’s southern cities endured the deadliest heat wave on record; more than 2,000 people died, including 1,200 in Karachi at 45°C with high humidity and no wind.
- 2020 Karachi deluge: 230 mm of rain in 12 hours submerged the city, killing more than 40; lockdowns limited damage.
- 2022 monsoon catastrophe: Sindh and Balochistan faced unprecedented rainfall; August 2022 was the wettest month on record. The Indus River overflowed; Balochistan—the country’s driest region—saw a 500% increase in July rainfall (highest since 1961), following severe heat and drought cycles. The floods caused more than 1,700 fatalities, affected 33 million people, and inflicted $40 billion in losses. A 2023 npj Climate and Atmospheric Sciencestudy linked heat waves in China and Europe to Pakistan’s intense 2022 rainfall.
- Shifting patterns in Thar: The Thar Desert—historically drought-stricken—has seen more rainfall, but with thunder and lightning exacting a toll. In the 2024 monsoon, 14 people died from lightning and heavy rain; more than 350 have died in eight years from similar incidents. Saeed cites the Clausius-Clapeyron effect—warmer air holding more moisture—contributing to heavier rainfall in arid regions. While some in Tharparkar blame the Thar Coal Project for lightning intensity, no formal study has confirmed this. Regional studies note increasing lightning in parts of South Asia, but evidence for Tharparkar remains limited.
Slow-Onset Threat: Sea-Level Rise and the Disappearing Delta
Melting glaciers, heavy rainfall, and a warming sea now compound a sea-level rise threat. The Sindh delta is disappearing rapidly; 15 of 17 creeks have been lost to seawater, submerging millions of acres of agricultural land over the years. Displaced residents are moving to higher ground such as Karachi. Climate migration could rise to 2.3 million by 2050. Saeed distinguishes compound events (seasonal/sub-seasonal) from slow-onset events like sea-level rise.
Pakistan adopted a climate change policy in 2012 and created a climate ministry to address rising temperatures, floods, and melting glaciers. Yet a 2024 Transparency International Pakistan brief on climate financing says “the current system needs significant improvement,” citing incomplete implementation, non-climate sector influence, arbitrary decision-making, weak political commitment, and limited public participation.
Climate Change Minister Senator Musadik Malik said Pakistan is expanding capacity and refining policy for adaptation and mitigation, which require multilateral funding. Since the Loss and Damage Fund was created at COP28, Pakistan has not received any amount, he said.
Yasir Darya (Climate Action Centre Pakistan) warned the future is bleak, adding that the Trump administration’s push to extract oil in Pakistan would worsen risks; if average temperatures rise 2°C in the coming decades, “there is nothing we could have done.” Waqar Ahmed said the path forward is clear: “We need to go to zero carbon immediately.”
Pakistan’s recent disasters underscore that climate change does not affect regions evenly. Some are vulnerable; some are on the verge of collapse. The compound and sequential effects identified by researchers require more data and study to develop region-based solutions—in Pakistan and beyond—before cascading hazards strike again.
Lead image courtesy of Asian Development Bank via Flickr(CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) | A young couple with their 3 weeks old son, who was born in the Pakistan Navy Relief Camp.
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