Germany’s planned ban on new fossil heaters looks set to be defeated by staunch parliament opposition and could take as long as 2030 to come fully into effect.

In 2021, the German government agreed to require new heaters to run on 65% renewable energy from 2025 – a de-facto ban on fossil boilers running on natural gas. When Russia invaded Ukraine, and Germany’s gas supply became tight, the date was pulled forward by a year.

But the liberal FDP party, a junior member in Germany’s three-party coalition which is dominated by the social democrats and the greens, was never a fan of the proposal.

A draft law to implement the ban was leaked to the press in March, sparking controversy within the coalition, which spent 30 hours in a meeting to fix the situation. Ultimately, the government endorsed the 2024 ban – although the FDP disavowed the deal within minutes.

Cop28 moots oil and gas initiative despite greenwash accusations

Now, Germany’s two legislatures –  the parliament and the Bundesrat representing the country’s 16 federal states – are currently examining the law. The Bundesrat is adamant that the 2024 ban is too early, while the FDP has vowed to change the law as much as possible in the lower house.

What is almost certain now is that the 2024 start date for the ban will not go ahead.

That much became clear from the annual meeting of Germany’s powerful landlord association Haus & Grund. Germany, unlike other EU states, is a renters’ country. More than half of the population rent, making the country a landlord’s paradise.

After court blocks renewables push, US promotes carbon capture & hydrogen

The prospect of a boiler ban caused “pure desperation” among his members, explained Kai Warnecke, the landlord association chief, who spoke in Berlin on Thursday (11 May). He himself recently gained some notoriety for suing political activists in Berlin for defamation.

At a landlords’ association gathering, Green MP Christina-Johanne Schröder was booed while trying to communicate the party line on the boiler ban.

She explained that no heaters will be forcibly removed and biomass can be installed in existing buildings. But landlords were not happy and they can count on support from the smallest party in the German government: the FDP.

The law’s architect, top-level official Patrick Graichen – who is currently embroiled in a cronyism affair – cancelled his participation at the last minute.

Time for a delay

“When exactly the [boiler ban] law enters into force is of secondary importance,” explains Lukas Köhler, deputy chief of the Bundestag-FDP.

“It is important that the [boiler ban] is good and practicable to implement – otherwise, climate protection will not be helped,” added Köhler who is considered to be among the most progressive voices in the FDP on climate issues.

In theory, Germany’s boiler ban seeks to ensure that future heating purchases have a credible pathway to climate neutrality.

A favoured tech