The US solar industry shrank by 16% in 2022. It was a volatile year characterized by the anticircumvention investigation, widespread equipment detentions at ports and the historic victory of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). On balance, all the uncertainty surrounding various trade issues as well as supply chain constraints took their toll on industry growth.

As the industry looks ahead to 2023, there is cause for optimism. Most expect supply chain relief in the second half of this year as importers satisfy Customs and Border Protection (CBP) requirements and shipments make their way to project sites. But major uncertainties remain regarding new anticircumvention tariffs, domestic solar module supply and US Treasury guidance on various aspects of the IRA.

To help the industry benchmark these uncertainties, we’ve created a set of alternative scenarios. In our US solar market ins