ESCAP report: Power-plant exposure to 40°C days will more than double; South and South-West Asia face the steepest risks
Extreme heat is pushing Asia–Pacific’s power systems toward a breaking point. In its Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2025: Rising Heat, Rising Risk, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) finds that the share of power plants exposed to days above 40°C will more than double to 8% by 2099—and surge to more than 20% in South and South-West Asia. At the same time, global cooling demand is on track to more than triple by 2050, with air conditioners already responsible for 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually.
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Heatwaves trigger demand spikes as supply falters
ESCAP warns that energy systems are becoming the first point of collapse during extreme heat. Heatwaves drive sudden surges in electricity use as millions rely on air conditioning, even as high temperatures weaken generation and grid performance. The result—demand soaring while supply shrinks—is already producing brownouts on the hottest days, when access to cooling becomes a life-saving necessity.
Rising temperatures erode output across technologies and networks:
- Thermal power plants lose efficiency as cooling water warms.
- Transmission lines sag and carry less current in extreme heat.
- Solar PV systems shed roughly 0.5% efficiency per 1°C increase in air temperature.
Under a high-emissions pathway, ESCAP projects that the share of power plants exposed to days above 45°C will rise to 1.3% by century’s end. South and South-West Asia are again the most vulnerable, with exposure expected to climb from near zero to almost 13%.
Cascading failures beyond the grid
Heat-driven power outages have system-wide consequences. Hospitals can lose cooling, water systems may shut down, food supply chains are disrupted and urban safety nets buckle. ESCAP cautions that power loss during extreme heat can quickly become deadly, especially for communities without backup systems.
Cooling is now essential for vulnerable populations, yet the energy it requires is vast and growing. ESCAP notes that global cooling demand will more than triple by 2050, while today’s air-conditioning already emits 1 billion tonnes of CO₂ a year. Without reforms, rising heat and expanding cooling loads will further tighten the demand–supply vise on power systems.
South and South-West Asia: the epicenter of exposure
ESCAP identifies South and South-West Asia as facing the steepest rise in exposure to extreme heat. More than one in five power plants in the sub-region could experience days above 40°C by 2099, compounding risks from grid stress, water scarcity and efficiency losses.
What ESCAP urges governments and utilities to do now:
- Strengthen heat-resilient power planning: Stress-test assets and operations for 40–45°C days and plan for peak-demand surges.
- Integrate water–energy–food strategies: Manage cooling water constraints alongside energy reliability and agricultural needs.
- Expand passive and nature-based cooling: Scale urban shade, ventilation design and green infrastructure to cut cooling loads.
- Build regional “green cooling corridors”: Coordinate standards and finance to deploy efficient, lower-emission cooling technologies at scale.
ESCAP’s assessment is unequivocal: extreme heat is already eroding energy reliability across Asia–Pacific. Without decisive action to build heat-resilient power systems and rapidly expand efficient cooling, climate-driven temperatures will push the region’s electricity networks past their limits—precisely when billions of people need them most.
Lead image courtesy of uman bhaumik from Getty Image (High voltage power grid)
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