Pew analysis warns plastic waste will more than double without action; packaging is the chief culprit—and the fastest fix.
A sweeping new analysis from the Pew Charitable Trusts, produced with academics including researchers at Imperial College London and the University of Oxford, concludes that the 66 million tonnes of plastic packaging that leak into the environment each year could be cut by 97 percent by 2040—primarily through reuse and return systems alongside targeted production cuts and material substitution.
Absent intervention, the report—Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025—projects plastic pollution will more than double to 280 million tonnes a year over the next 15 years, the equivalent of a garbage truck’s worth of plastic dumped every second. The authors say the surge will harm economies and public health and accelerate climate breakdown.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
Packaging Drives the Crisis—And the Opportunity
Plastic production, rooted in fossil fuels, is set to rise 52 percent from 450 million tonnes in 2025 to 680 million tonnes in 2040, outpacing already stretched waste systems. The packaging sector—from films and bags to bottles and rigid tubs—accounts for the largest share of plastic use today and will continue to do so in 2040, the report finds. In 2025, packaging made up 33 percent of plastic waste and produced 66 million tonnes of pollution annually.
The authors argue that deposit return schemes and consumer reuse models—such as refillable cups and returnable food boxes—can remove two-thirds of packaging pollution on their own. Combined with bans on certain polymers and switching to materials such as cardboard, glass and metal where appropriate, overall plastic packaging leakage could be almost eliminated.
“We have the ability to transform this,” said Winnie Lau, project director for preventing plastic pollution at the Pew Charitable Trusts. “There are two key tools to decrease pollution from plastic packaging by 97% by 2040.”
Health Toll From Plastic Chemicals
Beyond litter and ecosystem damage, the report warns of human exposure to plastics “from children playing with toys to people living next to petrochemical plants.” Plastic products contain more than 16,000 intentionally added chemicals, as well as numerous contaminants. Studies have linked many of these chemicals to hormone disruption, decreased fertility, low birth weight, cognitive and developmental changes in children, diabetes, and increased cardiovascular and cancer risk factors, the authors note.
The global plastics system’s greenhouse gas emissions are projected to climb 58 percent—from 2.7 GtCO₂e in 2025 to 4.2 GtCO₂e by 2040. At that point, if plastic production were a country, its emissions would rank third globally, behind only China and the United States.
A Playbook for Rapid Reduction
The report outlines a path to rework the plastics economy within a generation:
- Scale reuse and return: Establish deposit return systems and standardized refill models to keep packaging in circulation and out of landfills and nature.
- Cut production for packaging: Reduce overall plastic use in packaging and ban specific polymers that drive pollution and health risks.
- Substitute where effective: Replace plastic with alternatives—cardboard, glass, metal—when they reduce leakage and risk.
- Upgrade waste systems: Pair upstream measures with improved collection and disposal to keep pace with remaining materials.
Taken together, interventions in waste management, production cuts, and reuse/return could reduce plastic pollution by 83 percent, greenhouse gas emissions by 38 percent, and health impacts by 54 percent by 2040, the analysis finds—while saving governments $19 billion annually in collection and disposal costs.
“This rapid growth will harm human health and livelihoods,” the authors write, but stress that transformation is within reach. “Hope remains,” said Tom Dillon of the Pew Charitable Trusts. “The global community can remake the plastic system and solve the plastic pollution problem in a generation, but decision-makers will need to prioritise people and the planet.”
Lead image courtesy of narvikk from Getty Images Signature (Plastic waste in the sea).
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