A strong rise in solar, and to a lesser extent wind, led to renewables overtaking coal generation for the first time on record in the first half of 2025. Renewables grew by 363 TWh (+7.7%) to reach 5,072 TWh, while coal generation fell by 31 TWh to 4,896 TWh.
For the first time, renewable energy generated more electricity than coal globally in the first half of 2025, according to new data from energy think tank Ember. The shift was driven by rapid growth in China and India, with solar and wind meeting 100% of additional electricity demand and helping nudge coal and gas generation slightly lower.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
Clean Power Takes the Lead
Curbing coal—which emits roughly twice the carbon dioxide of gas generation—is considered vital to meeting climate targets. While developing countries, especially China, led the clean-energy surge, richer economies showed a different trajectory: the United States and the European Union relied more on fossil fuels for power. Ember calls this moment a “crucial turning point,” but emphasizes the divergence in regional trends.
Even as China adds coal plants, it remains far ahead in clean-energy expansion—installing more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined. That growth outpaced rising electricity demand, cutting the country’s fossil fuel generation by 2%. India added significant new solar and wind capacity amid slower demand growth, also reducing coal and gas use.
In the United States, electricity demand rose faster than clean-energy output, increasing reliance on fossil fuels. In the EU, months of weak wind and hydropower performance led to a rise in coal and gas generation. A separate International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis halves its outlook for US renewable growth this decade—from 500 GW of new capacity by 2030 to 250 GW—reflecting policy impacts and underscoring the stark contrast with China’s strategy.
New Solar Frontiers: Asia and Africa
Solar delivered 83% of the global increase in electricity demand and has been the largest source of new electricity for three consecutive years. Today, 58% of solar generation is in lower-income countries, where falling costs have accelerated adoption. Ember notes solar prices have fallen 99.9% since 1975, enabling rapid market emergence where grid power is expensive or unreliable.
In Pakistan, solar panel imports in 2024 reached 17 GW, roughly double the prior year and about a third of the country’s current generation capacity. Africa is seeing a solar boom, with panel imports up 60% year on year through June; South Africa led, while Nigeria overtook Egypt to reach 1.7 GW—enough, Ember says, to meet the electricity demand of roughly 1.8 million homes in Europe. Smaller nations moved even faster: Algeria increased imports 33-fold, Zambia eightfold, and Botswana sevenfold.
Rapid adoption is revealing strains. In Afghanistan, widespread use of solar-powered water pumps is lowering the water table, with research warning some regions could run dry within five to ten years, threatening millions of livelihoods.
The Sun Belt, the Wind Belt, and System Costs
Adair Turner, chair of the UK’s Energy Transitions Commission, contrasts the “sun belt” and “wind belt.” In the sun belt—much of Asia, Africa, and Latin America—daytime cooling demand aligns with solar output, and falling battery prices help shift energy into the night. In wind-reliant countries like the UK, turbine costs have declined far less than solar, while higher interest rates have raised project costs. Winter wind lulls lasting weeks require backup powerbeyond batteries, adding complexity and expense.
Ember’s data also highlights China’s export clout. In August 2025, clean-tech exports hit a record $20 billion, driven by electric vehicles (up 26%) and batteries (up 23%). Combined, those exports are now worth more than twiceChina’s solar panel exports.
The IEA says the gap will likely grow: the US is expected to see much slower renewable growth than previously forecast, while China surges ahead with clean-tech production and exports. Ember frames the moment as clean power keeping pace with demand growth, but notes that sustained progress depends on policy stability, grid reliability, and the ability to balance variability across regions.
Renewables overtaking coal is a landmark in the global power mix. Solar’s cost plunge, China’s scale, and India’s expansion powered the change—yet regional divergence and system challenges remain. Whether this becomes a durable pivot will hinge on policy choices, infrastructure investment, and market design that can translate record clean-energy additions into consistent, reliable decarbonization worldwide.
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