Keeping to 1.5C of warming is no longer possible – but we must still limit the overshoot

Sep 2, 2026 | Last Update: Sep 3, 2026

We need a strategy for navigating the huge risks to ecosystems and societies

People use umbrellas as they walk at Plaza de Oriente during an early heatwave hits Europe on May 23, 2026 in Madrid, Spain. (Photo by Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images)

Laurence Tubiana is CEO of the European Climate Foundation and was formerly France's Climate Change Ambassador and Special Representative for COP21 in Paris.

The UN has released a report this week confirming what many people have feared: the world is going to pass 1.5C of warming.

At current emissions, the remaining carbon budget will be exhausted within roughly three years. We are heading into “exceedance” of the 1.5C threshold: a sustained breach of the Paris Agreement's primary temperature goal before any possible return below it.

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