The spread of hotspots across Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Sumatra, Malaysia and the Philippines signals that fire risk is not confined to one country. Weather patterns, wind direction and rainfall variability will determine whether isolated hotspots develop into widespread fires.
A widening pattern of hotspots across Southeast Asia is raising fresh concern over forest and land fires as the dry season approaches, with scientists warning that a potential El Niño could intensify the threat.
Satellite imagery from NASA shows hotspots scattered across large parts of Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar. In Indonesia, clusters are concentrated on the island of Sumatra. Hotspots have also appeared in parts of Malaysia and the Philippines, which borders the Pacific Ocean.
As of Wednesday (March 25), the distribution of hotspots suggests an elevated regional fire risk that could escalate in the coming months.
The convergence of seasonal dryness and climate variability is reviving memories of past regional haze crises — and prompting early warnings from governments.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
Singapore Issues Early Warning on Possible Haze
Singapore has already issued an early warning about the potential for transboundary haze in the weeks ahead.
Grace Fu, Singapore’s Minister for Sustainability and the Environment, told Parliament in mid-February that assessments by the Meteorological Service Singapore indicate the number of hotspots around the city-state could rise in the coming months due to wind patterns and drier conditions.
“This could impact the haze situation affecting Singapore,” Grace said, as quoted by The Straits Times.
The northeast monsoon wind pattern is forecast to carry smoke toward Singapore if fires intensify. The country last experienced severe haze episodes in 2013 and 2015, events that disrupted daily life and affected public health across the region.
Echoes of 2015: Extreme Dryness and Regional Smoke
A decade ago, in 2015, El Niño combined with a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole to create extreme dry conditions. The result was large-scale fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan.
Hazardous haze blanketed much of Southeast Asia for an extended period, underscoring how climate variability and land-use practices can converge into a regional crisis.
The current spread of hotspots is occurring against a backdrop of renewed concern about El Niño’s return.
El Niño Risk at 60–70 Percent, Says Climate Expert
Professor Emeritus Fredolin Tangang of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia estimates that the probability of El Niño developing in the second half of this year stands at 60 to 70 percent, with the potential to continue into 2027.
If that scenario materializes, 2026 and 2027 could become the hottest years on record for Malaysia, surpassing 2024.
“This could also cause Indonesia to experience drier and hotter conditions,” Tangang said, as quoted by AsiaOne.
Higher temperatures and prolonged dry spells increase the likelihood that small fires spread rapidly, especially in peatland areas.
Rising Temperatures Increase Fire Vulnerability in Indonesia
Indonesia has already experienced a steady warming trend.
Data from the Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) show that over the past 44 years, several regions have recorded increases in maximum temperatures ranging from 1.5 to 3 degrees Celsius.
The combination of long-term warming and a potential El Niño significantly heightens vulnerability to forest and land fires, known locally as karhutla.
Land-clearing practices that still involve burning add to the risk. Once ignited under dry conditions, fires can become difficult to control.
If not anticipated early, Indonesia could once again become a major contributor to transboundary haze in Southeast Asia.
A Regional Test of Preparedness
The months ahead will test regional readiness.
The spread of hotspots across Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Sumatra, Malaysia and the Philippines signals that fire risk is not confined to one country. Weather patterns, wind direction and rainfall variability will determine whether isolated hotspots develop into widespread fires.
With the possibility of El Niño strengthening later this year, governments face mounting pressure to act quickly — through monitoring, early intervention and coordinated response — before smoke once again blankets cities across borders.
The warning signs are visible from space. Whether they translate into another severe haze season will depend on preparation, enforcement and the pace at which the region responds to a warming climate.
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