The World Meteorological Organization says El Niño is almost certain to persist through February 2027, with Pacific Ocean temperatures potentially climbing as high as 3.6°C above average.
El Niño has intensified rapidly across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and could strengthen further before peaking around the end of 2026, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization.
The United Nations weather and climate agency said there is a near 100% probability that El Niño will persist through February 2027, a level of forecast certainty the organization said it has experienced for the first time.
Sea surface temperatures in the closely watched Niño 3.4 region are already more than 2°C above average. Forecasts indicate the anomaly could eventually reach 3.6°C, potentially making the current El Niño the strongest in four decades.
The outlook raises the likelihood of significant shifts in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation around the world. But the WMO cautioned that a powerful El Niño does not automatically determine how severe its effects will be in any particular country or region.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
Pacific Ocean Temperatures Are Rising Quickly
El Niño is the warmer-than-normal phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a phenomenon centered mainly in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific.
It generally develops when trade winds across the region slow or even reverse.
El Niño is typically associated with higher-than-normal global average temperatures and changes in rainfall. Those shifts can contribute to extreme weather including droughts, heat waves, wildfires and floods in different parts of the world. The current event has strengthened markedly.
According to the WMO, the widely used Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, averaged 1.5°C above normal from May through July 2026 before reaching 2°C above normal in July. Between late July and mid-August, sea surface temperatures climbed to between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average, signaling continued intensification.
“Forecasts show that the peak may go as high as 3.6°C above the average,” said Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, head of the WMO’s climate prediction services division.
El Niño Could Become the Strongest in 40 Years
If temperatures reach the upper end of the forecast, the current event could stand out in the WMO’s modern monitoring record.
“This could be the strongest El Niño in the past four decades, when WMO started using the current indices for monitoring the strength of El Niño,” Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the WMO, said during a press briefing.
The warming is not limited to the ocean surface. Temperatures below the surface of the Pacific are also rising at an unprecedented rate.
“In some of the regions the sub surface temperatures were above normal by 8°C which is striking,” Moufouma-Okia said.
The combination of surface and subsurface conditions provides strong support for El Niño continuing and potentially becoming stronger over the coming months, according to the WMO.
A Strong El Niño Does Not Mean the Same Impact Everywhere
The WMO is almost certain that El Niño will continue through February 2027 and is largely confident that it will peak toward the end of this year.
Exactly how powerful it becomes remains less certain.
Its strength alone also cannot predict the severity of weather impacts in individual regions.
The WMO said El Niño’s effects vary according to location and season and can be altered by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans.
That interaction means countries can experience different outcomes even during the same global El Niño event.
For South Asia and Australia, one important additional influence is the Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD.
During its positive phase, waters in the western Indian Ocean become warmer than normal while the eastern part becomes colder than normal.
The WMO expects a positive IOD phase to develop between September and November, which could counteract some El Niño effects over South Asia.
Conditions in the Atlantic may also influence how the event unfolds around the world.
The equatorial Atlantic is forecast to remain generally warm, with sea surface temperatures in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic staying above normal.
“These conditions may reinforce, weaken or alter typical El Niño impacts in different regions,” the WMO said.
Wetter Conditions Forecast for Some Regions, Drier Weather for Others
The WMO’s rainfall outlook shows patterns typically associated with El Niño.
Wetter-than-normal conditions are more likely across the Horn of Africa and parts of central and southern South America.
The outlook points in the opposite direction for several other regions.
Drier-than-normal conditions are predicted across the Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent, Australia, northern South America, Central America and the Caribbean.
Those shifts illustrate why the consequences of El Niño can vary so widely, with altered rainfall patterns affecting regions differently at the same time.
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Saulo said. “We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”
With the event strengthening and expected to persist well into 2027, the WMO is increasing coordination with national weather and water agencies.
The focus is on forecasts and services that can help protect people and livelihoods as countries prepare for potential changes in rainfall and temperature.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response,” Saulo said.
She said the scale of the response is unprecedented in the organization’s history.
“Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” Saulo said.
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