El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern that originates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
A new global climate alert has been issued as the World Meteorological Organization warns that an El Niño event could develop as early as May to July 2026.
In its latest update released on April 24, the agency said the warming phenomenon is expected to influence global weather patterns, with above-normal land temperatures likely across much of the world in the coming months.
“An El Niño event is expected to develop from mid-2026, impacting global temperature and rainfall patterns,” the organisation stated.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
What Is El Niño and Why It Matters
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern that originates in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The term “El Niño,” meaning “the boy” or “Christ child” in Spanish, dates back to 17th-century observations by Peruvian fisherfolk, who noticed unusually warm ocean waters around Christmas. These warmer waters disrupted fish populations and affected seasonal harvests.
Scientists later identified that this warming extends across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, altering atmospheric conditions and influencing weather patterns worldwide.
Its counterpart, La Niña — or “the girl” — represents the cooler phase of the cycle, typically producing opposite climate effects. These events occur at intervals ranging from two to seven years.
Strong Event Possible, but Forecast Uncertainty Remains
While some climate models suggest the upcoming El Niño could be strong, the WMO has cautioned against premature conclusions.
“Models indicate that this may be a strong event – but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia.
Forecast confidence is expected to improve after April, the agency added.
The WMO also clarified that it does not use the term “super El Niño,” as it is not part of standard operational classifications.
One of the most immediate impacts of El Niño is its warming effect on global climate.
For the May–June–July period, the WMO expects above-normal land surface temperatures across nearly all regions worldwide. The strongest warming signals are projected over southern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe and northern Africa.
The previous El Niño event, which lasted from June 2023 to April 2024, contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record.
Shifting Rainfall and Weather Patterns
El Niño is also known for reshaping rainfall distribution across continents.
According to the WMO, the phenomenon is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
At the same time, it often brings drought conditions to Australia, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia.
Seasonal storm patterns may also shift. During the boreal summer, warmer ocean waters can intensify hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific, while suppressing storm formation in the Atlantic Basin.
The potential return of El Niño underscores the interconnected nature of the global climate system.
From temperature extremes to rainfall variability, the phenomenon has wide-ranging effects that can influence agriculture, water resources and disaster risks across multiple regions.
As forecasts continue to evolve, the WMO’s warning highlights the need for close monitoring and preparedness, as the world may soon face another cycle of climate disruption driven by warming oceans.
