Some better news on the global response to the climate crisis, at last. An analysis out this morning calculates a 70 percent chance that global greenhouse emissions will start falling in 2024 — which would make 2023 the year emissions peaked.
Climate Analytics, a science and policy institute based in Berlin, has produced an analysis that offers a timely dose of optimism following the latest wave of pre-COP reports confirming that global emissions are still rising and current government climate targets put the world on track for well over 2 degrees Celsius of warming this century.
The top takeaway from the report is that, if clean technology trends continue and action on reducing methane emissions is ramped up, there is a better than evens chance greenhouse gas emissions will start to fall next year. With scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warning that global emissions must peak by 2025 if the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal is to be kept within reach, the conclusion is significant.
Climate Analytics predictions are founded on a scenario where current growth trends for wind, solar and electric vehicle (EV) technologies are maintained and countries signed up to the Global Methane Pledge make "adequate progress" towards their goal of cutting emissions 30 percent by 2030. Justifying the rationale for exploring this "continued acceleration scenario" — which follows the S-curve deployment model historically experienced by many maturing technologies — the researchers said more modest projections for clean tech deployment developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and others had tended to be overly conservative when compared to actual wind and solar growth data to date.
A tripling of renewable capacity by 2030, driven by turbocharged wind and solar deployment, is still well within reach.
The rapid rollout of zero-carbon technologies in recent years is set to eat into fossil fuel demand, Climate Analytics said, predicting that installed capacity of renewables would reach around 9 Terawatts by 2030, with wind and solar providing 7.5 Terawatts.
Echoing findings published from energy think tank Ember, the analysts note the world is already close to being on track to meet the proposed goal of tripling of renewable capacity by 2030 — a target governments are set to debate at the COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai next week. "A tripling of renewable capacity by 2030, driven by turbocharged wind and solar deployment, is still well within reach," the report notes.
Such rapid growth of zero-carbon technologies would be sufficient to cover the projected growth of energy demand and start to eat into demand for fossil fuels, Climate Analytics said. As such, its scenario sees total fossil fuel demand reaching its peak in 2023, and then entering a period of rapid decline from 2025.
"For years, energy demand growth has outstripped renewables deployment, despite record additions of wind and solar," said report author and Climate Analytics expert Neil Grant. "We're now approaching the tipping point, where renewables overtake demand growth and start displacing coal, oil and gas. This would mark the beginning of the end for the fossil economy."
The IEA is predicting a peak in fossil gas demand by 2029, but Climate Analytics' scenario suggests demand peaking five years earlier, in 2024. Meanwhile, it expects coal demand should peak this year, with oil demand then peaking in 2025, as the continued growth in electric vehicle slashes demand for the fossil fuel from the transport sector. "The continued acceleration scenario would see distinctive peaks in all three fossil fuels by 2025," the report states.
The report emphasises that its findings — while providing a more optimistic view of the future than many mainstream analyses — offer no room for complacency. Peaking greenhouse gas emissions would be a historic milestone, but it is not enough to limit warming to 2 Celsius, let alone the more demanding 1.5 Celsius goal. Even under the "accelerated progress" scenario emissions are set to fall by just 10 percent by 2030 on 2019 levels — less than a quarter of the 43 percent cut required by the end of this decade if the world is to move onto a 1.5 degrees Celsius compatible decarbonization trajectory.
For years, energy demand growth has outstripped renewables deployment, despite record additions of wind and solar.
To deliver the rest of the steep emissions cuts required by 2030 for a 1.5 Celsius pathway, governments need to set in motion policies that would enable not just a tripling
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