Climate change hurting almost all coffee-growing regions. One of the most traded commodities on the planet, has an unexpectedly complex journey and how climate change is threatening its production.
Climate change, the elusive threat looming over the planet, is taking a toll on one of the world’s most beloved beverages—coffee. “Recent reports indicate that if demand for coffee continues to rise along historical lines and expected impacts from climate change play out—for example, reduced productivity and reduced area suitable for coffee growing—we will be facing moderate to severe supply shortages of coffee in less than two decades,” warns Riya Krishnan, a senior researcher at the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT).
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
Climate Change Hurting Almost All Coffee-Growing Regions
According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the majority of coffee is produced in the Southern Hemisphere, while consumption takes place primarily in the Northern Hemisphere. Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia are the world’s foremost coffee-producing countries, while European Union nations and the United States are the top consumers and importers. Growing consumption in emerging economies and stronger interest in specialty coffee and product innovations in developed countries are currently driving the expanding market, according to the UN food agency.
Temperature Increases
Coffee plants, particularly the Arabica variety, thrive in specific temperature ranges. Arabica grows best between 18°C and 22°C, while Robusta prefers 22°C to 28°C. However, rising global temperatures are pushing these conditions beyond the traditional altitudes and latitudes suitable for coffee cultivation. Higher temperatures can accelerate the growth of coffee plants, reducing the maturation period of coffee cherries and impacting the development of flavors. Excessive heat also increases evapotranspiration, stressing plants and making them more susceptible to diseases.
Changes in Rainfall Patterns
Regular rainfall is crucial for coffee production, especially in regions reliant on natural precipitation. Climate change is disrupting these patterns, leading to longer droughts and heavier rainfall. Droughts can dehydrate coffee plants and degrade soil quality, while excessive rainfall can cause fungal diseases such as coffee leaf rust and cherry rot, severely affecting yield and quality.
Increased Pests and Diseases
Warmer and wetter climates foster environments ideal for pests and pathogens that attack coffee plants. The coffee borer beetle, for instance, burrows into coffee cherries to lay eggs, with larvae consuming the beans. Similarly, coffee leaf rust, a fungal disease causing defoliation and significant yield loss, is becoming more prevalent due to warmer, damper conditions. These pests and diseases not only reduce yields but also increase production costs, as more resources are needed for pest and disease management.
Impact on Coffee Farmers
Climate change’s effects on coffee production are particularly harsh for millions of coffee farmers, especially smallholders lacking resources to combat these changes. Reduced crop yields and quality directly impact their incomes and livelihoods. In countries where coffee is a major economic driver, this situation exacerbates economic instability.
Quality and Supply of Coffee
The flavor profile of coffee is also at risk as climate conditions alter the chemical makeup of coffee beans, affecting flavor, aroma, and acidity. This not only impacts the consumer experience but also market dynamics, as some regions struggle to produce high-quality beans. Many of the world’s coffee-growing regions are highly vulnerable to climate change, risking global supply chains and potentially leading to increased prices and shortages.
Scientist Sarada Krishnan, who is director of programs at the Germany-based Global Crop Diversity Trust, pointed out The sweeping effects of climate change spare no coffee-growing region. “Almost all coffee-growing regions are impacted by climate change,” she stated. “Specific climate change impacts will vary country to country. Some places will become hotter, some drier, some cooler, and some wetter. But nearly every coffee production area on Earth is already experiencing new extremes in weather variability that pose major threats to both plants and people,” added Chad Neuschwander, a climate change specialist at CIAT.
Greenhouse gas concentrations are at their highest in 2 million years and rising, causing the planet to warm by about 1.1 degrees Celsius since the 1800s, according to UN figures, with the last decade being “the warmest on record.”
The Impact on Coffee Production
The effects of climate change on coffee production are already being felt across various regions. In Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of coffee, prolonged droughts and rising temperatures have led to significant crop losses and reduced yields. Arabica coffee, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of global production and is renowned for its superior quality, is particularly vulnerable to these climatic shifts.
“Farmers need access to financing, to weather insurance, to higher climate-resilient quality plants, and to better prices. The challenges are not coming out of a void — they are the result of many years of underinvestment in the coffee sector.”
In Southeast Asia, harsher growing conditions have left many Vietnamese farmers concerned about coffee’s value as a profitable crop, while some have cut down coffee trees to grow pepper and durian instead. This shift has caused a supply decrease, pushing Robusta coffee prices this year to the highest level since 2008. Meanwhile, rising temperatures are projected to further decrease future coffee production.
Beyond concerns about coffee output, consumers may also have to adapt to a different flavor profile. According to a 2022 study of tropical crops, including Arabica coffee, avocados, and cashews, coffee is most vulnerable to climate change, as rising temperatures reduce the area suitable for production and exports of this plant globally. Researchers believe adaptation is necessary, proposing to replace Arabica coffee with Robusta coffee, which can better withstand heat.
Nestlé, the Swiss maker of Nespresso and Nescafe, is among the companies facing this change. During a visit to several Vietnamese coffee farms, Philipp Navratil, the Director of Nestlé’s Coffee Business Strategy Department, said, “According to forecasts, in the next 30 years, if climate change is not resolved, 50% of the coffee-growing land that we know today will no longer be able to produce coffee.”
Nestlé is a large consumer of Robusta coffee, estimated to account for around a quarter of Vietnam’s total coffee output annually, with the company spending $700 million per year on the crop. However, according to an October report by World Coffee Research, with increasing consumption trends and the impact of climate change on production, the world may face shortages of up to 35 million bags of Robusta coffee by 2040. Currently, the world produces nearly 35 million bags of Robusta coffee each year.
Encouraging Sustainable Farming Practices
According to World Coffee Research, changing weather patterns could significantly reduce productivity, leaving millions of smallholder farmers – who produce 60% of the world’s coffee – vulnerable to economic and food insecurity.
In 2021, authors from various organizations, including a Vietnamese university, published a study showing that prolonged dry periods in Vietnam and irrigation water shortages in recent years have seriously affected the productivity of Robusta coffee farms in the Central Highlands. The entire country is also preparing to cope with the impact of El Niño in the coming months.
Facing the challenge of water shortages and rising temperatures, Tran Thi Lien, a 46-year-old owner of a one-hectare coffee farm in Dak Lak province, Central Highlands, sees sustainable farming methods as more effective. She and her neighbors have cut back on chemical fertilizers and created shade for the coffee trees to reduce exposure to harsh sunlight. Additionally, she has diversified her land by growing black pepper and betel.
In the context of harsh weather threatening crops and the need to adapt to climate change, Nestlé announced in 2022 that it would invest about $1.2 billion through 2030 to encourage coffee growers supplying its Nescafe brand to adopt more sustainable farming methods. This includes replacing existing trees with varieties that can better cope with weather fluctuations.
Facing the challenge of water shortages and rising temperatures, Tran Thi Lien, a 46-year-old owner of a one-hectare coffee farm in Dak Lak province, Central Highlands, sees sustainable farming methods as more effective. She and her neighbors have cut back on chemical fertilizers and created shade for the coffee trees to reduce exposure to harsh sunlight. Additionally, she has diversified her land by growing black pepper and betel.
In the context of harsh weather threatening crops and the need to adapt to climate change, Nestlé announced in 2022 that it would invest about $1.2 billion through 2030 to encourage coffee growers supplying its Nescafe brand to adopt more sustainable farming methods. This includes replacing existing trees with varieties that can better cope with weather fluctuations.
Lead image courtesy of Ngoc Nguyen from Ngoc Bao Nguyen’s Images via Canva
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