In 2025, the annual average CO2 concentration is projected to increase to 426.6 ppm; this is an increase of approximately 2.26 ppm between 2024 and 2025 and ‘unsustainable’ for 1.5°C Goal.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are set to reach an unprecedented 429.6 parts per million (ppm) in May 2025, the highest recorded concentration in over two million years. This alarming projection, released on January 17, 2025, by the UK’s Met Office based on data from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, underscores the escalating climate crisis.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
The annual average CO2 concentration is expected to climb to 426.6 ppm in 2025, marking a 2.26 ppm increase from 2024. These levels far exceed the trajectory outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to limit global warming to 1.5°C, signaling an urgent need for global action to curb emissions.
Unrelenting CO2 Increases: A Record-Breaking Trend
The past year has seen a record surge in CO2 concentrations, with a 3.58 ppm increase between 2023 and 2024— the steepest annual rise since measurements began in 1958. This sharp escalation was driven by record-high fossil fuel emissions, reduced carbon capture by natural sinks like tropical forests, and massive CO2 releases from wildfires.
Global fossil fuel emissions reached 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes in 2023, while wildfires contributed an additional 7.3 billion tonnes of CO2, according to the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service. Despite projections of a slower rise in CO2 levels in 2025, the current trend remains far too rapid to align with the IPCC’s climate targets.
Carbon dioxide acts as a heat-trapping gas, intensifying global warming and triggering more extreme climate events. In 2024, global temperatures surpassed those of 2023, making it the hottest year on record. This led to devastating impacts, including severe droughts, floods, and wildfires that killed thousands and displaced millions worldwide.
In India alone, at least 3,200 people died due to extreme weather events in 2024, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Globally, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that 2025 will likely rank among the top three hottest years on record, amplifying the risks of climate-related disasters.
A Call for Urgent International Action
As CO2 levels continue to rise, scientists stress the need for immediate and significant emissions reductions. “Halting global warming requires a complete stop in the buildup of greenhouse gases followed by a reduction,” emphasized Professor Richard Betts of the Met Office. While temporary La Niña conditions may slightly slow the rise of CO2 in 2025, they cannot counteract the long-term warming trend driven by human activities.
Betts highlighted that achieving the 1.5°C limit outlined in the Paris Agreement requires swift international collaboration and decisive action. This includes implementing policies to cut emissions, investing in renewable energy, and protecting carbon sinks like forests.
The forecasted CO2 levels for 2025 serve as a stark warning of the consequences of inaction. The record-breaking heat and extreme weather events of 2024 are not isolated anomalies but part of a worsening trend that threatens ecosystems, economies, and human lives.
Lead image courtesy of iStock(The Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii)
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