El Niño, rainfall deficits and supply concerns put pressure on household budgets.
BENGALURU, India — Rice prices are rising across southern India as weak monsoon rainfall fuels concern over the coming paddy harvest, putting pressure on household budgets and prompting calls for governments to protect supplies and support farmers.
Rice remains a staple in South Indian homes, making even modest price increases difficult for lower-income families to absorb.
In Karnataka, the average retail price of rice rose by about 14 per cent between May and July, roughly four times the national increase. In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, rice is selling at the highest average retail price in the region.
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Weaker Monsoon Disrupts Paddy Sowing
Experts say the El Niño weather pattern has contributed to weaker-than-normal monsoon rainfall, affecting paddy sowing and increasing concern over agricultural production.
Between June 1 and July 29, rainfall across India’s southern peninsula was 26 per cent below the long-period average.
Andhra Pradesh recorded the largest rainfall deficit in the region, at nearly 40 per cent. Kerala remained more than 20 per cent below average despite heavy rain and flooding in parts of the state.
Analysts warn that the season’s harvest could be affected if dry conditions continue.
Bengaluru Households Feel the Strain
The impact is already visible in household spending.
Residents of Bengaluru say rising rice prices are forcing them to cut back and leaving less income available for savings.
“The government should look at the welfare of poor people,” one Bengaluru resident said.
“The rich will eat whether produce gets expensive or cheap. It is the poor that gets affected. We are not able to save any income.”
Some Rice Varieties Rise Sharply
Grocery retailers say several rice varieties have become considerably more expensive, although prices differ according to quality, brand and place of sale.
“The price of rice was close to 50 Indian rupee, or US$0.50, per kilogram up until some time ago. Now, it is closer to 80 rupee,” one grocery store owner said.
“It is happening because there is no rainfall. The increase is making it very difficult for the poor. We anticipate prices will go up to 100 rupee per kilogram.”
Analysts Question Whether Shortages Are Driving Prices
Not all analysts believe the increase reflects an immediate shortage.
Some argue that speculation and hoarding, rather than actual supply constraints, are pushing prices higher as concerns spread over El Niño and the rainfall deficit.
“This news came to be known widely, everybody is anticipating El Niño and large rainfall deficit. Everybody is anticipating there will be shortage of agricultural production,” climate policy analyst Soumya Dutta said.
“So the hoarders have bought and are hoarding and are actually utilising this situation. Otherwise, there is absolutely no reason why rice prices at this point of time should go up.”
Dutta said the Food Corporation of India holds sufficient buffer stocks of paddy and that the government should have released them.
“Because we have enough buffer stock of paddy in the FCI godowns and it should have been released. The government should have released it,” he said.
Karnataka Denies Hoarding
The Karnataka government has denied that hoarding is taking place in the state.
It said it is holding discussions with traders and farmers to develop measures aimed at limiting further price increases.
Other southern states have introduced steps to reduce the burden on consumers, including the distribution of selected grain varieties at subsidised prices.
With below-normal rainfall forecast for the remainder of the monsoon season, experts are urging governments to respond quickly.
They are calling for support to farmers through free or subsidised seeds and fertilisers, along with measures to ensure adequate rice supplies and prevent further price increases.
The challenge now is to protect both sides of the food system: farmers facing uncertain rainfall and consumers already struggling with higher costs.
As the monsoon season continues, the direction of rice prices will depend not only on the weather but also on how quickly authorities respond to fears over production, speculation and supply.
