Our Water Authorities warn of extended rain gap and increasing climate volatility across Thailand in 2026.
BANGKOK — Thailand is preparing for a prolonged dry spell and increasingly unpredictable weather conditions as El Niño strengthens across the region, prompting authorities to urge closer monitoring of water resources and heightened preparedness for both drought and extreme rainfall events.
The National Water Resources Office (NWRO) has warned that Thailand is expected to experience a significant “rain gap” from late June to mid-July 2026, despite being in the middle of the annual rainy season.
Officials say the developing El Niño conditions could intensify dry periods while also increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, localised flooding and other weather extremes throughout the year.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
El Niño Expected to Drive More Erratic Weather Patterns
According to Chayan Muangsong, Secretary-General of the NWRO, weather data from the Meteorological Department and the Hydro-Informatics Institute indicate that a low-pressure trough is expected to shift northward over southern China.
This atmospheric change is projected to reduce rainfall across Thailand between late June and mid-July, creating a temporary but potentially significant interruption in seasonal precipitation.
Chayan said the situation has become more concerning because the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has already transitioned into an El Niño phase.
Climate models suggest the phenomenon will persist throughout 2026, contributing to longer dry spells and greater weather variability across the country.
The result could be a combination of extreme heat, drought conditions in some regions, and episodes of intense rainfall capable of triggering floods in others.
Rainfall Remains Below Average Across the Country
Water authorities reported that rainfall since the beginning of the year has remained below normal levels.
Current figures show that nationwide rainfall is approximately 10 per cent lower than the long-term average.
The lower rainfall totals have heightened concerns about water availability in the months ahead, particularly if El Niño conditions continue to strengthen.
Officials stressed that while rainfall has been below average overall, this does not eliminate the possibility of severe storms or heavy downpours occurring in specific areas.
Reservoir Levels Lower Than the Same Period Last Year
The latest assessment also showed declining water reserves in major storage facilities across the country.
According to the NWRO, total water storage across Thailand’s 35 major reservoirs currently stands at 45.05 billion cubic metres, representing 56 per cent of total capacity.
Usable water storage amounts to 20.94 billion cubic metres, equivalent to 37 per cent of total capacity.
This volume is approximately 490 million cubic metres lower than the same period last year.
The figures underscore the importance of careful water management as Thailand navigates the combined challenges of below-average rainfall and increasingly volatile climate conditions.
Flood Risks Remain Despite Dry Conditions
While drought concerns are growing, authorities cautioned that extreme rainfall events remain a significant threat.
The NWRO noted that heavy rainfall episodes could still occur during the rainy season, potentially triggering flash floods, rapid runoff and landslides in vulnerable areas.
To address these risks, the agency has instructed all relevant government bodies to fully implement nine key rainy-season preparedness measures for 2026.
Officials have also been directed to ensure that emergency personnel, machinery and response systems remain ready for rapid deployment when required.
Coordinated Water Management Underway
In response to changing weather conditions, the NWRO is working closely with the Royal Irrigation Department and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) to manage national water resources.
The agencies are adjusting water release plans based on real-time conditions to maintain balanced water distribution throughout the country.
At the same time, authorities are prioritising efforts to maximise water storage after the rainy season to strengthen future supply security.
The strategy aims to ensure adequate water availability for households, agriculture and other critical sectors during extended dry periods.
Public Urged to Use Water Responsibly
Alongside government management measures, officials are encouraging residents to conserve water and use available resources responsibly.
The NWRO said public cooperation will be important as Thailand prepares for a period of heightened climate uncertainty driven by El Niño.
Authorities continue to monitor weather developments closely and are conducting analyses twice daily, in both the morning and evening, to provide timely warnings and updated guidance.
New Forecasting Model Aims to Improve Climate Preparedness
To strengthen disaster preparedness and water management planning, the NWRO is also developing a new rainfall forecasting model.
The upgraded forecasting system will be submitted to the Subcommittee on Water Resources Management and is expected to improve predictions related to flooding, landslides and water-flow dynamics.
Officials believe the enhanced model will provide more accurate information for decision-makers and communities facing increasingly complex weather risks.
Thailand Braces for a Challenging Climate Year
As El Niño conditions become established across the region, Thailand faces the prospect of longer dry spells, rising temperatures and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
With rainfall below average, reservoir levels lower than last year and climate models pointing toward continued volatility, authorities are intensifying efforts to safeguard water supplies while preparing for both drought and sudden extreme weather events.
The coming months will test Thailand’s ability to balance water security, disaster preparedness and climate resilience as the country navigates one of the most uncertain weather periods in recent years.
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