Scientists say the expected Super El Niño could be more intense than past events due to human-induced climate change. Eric Webb, a meteorologist at the U.S. Department of Defence, explained that rising greenhouse gas concentrations are limiting the Earth’s ability to release heat efficiently.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring an El Niño event expected to develop this year that could intensify into a “Super El Niño,” raising the risk of prolonged drought across Southeast Asia and potentially driving global temperatures to new record highs.
Climate models are already showing changes in Pacific Ocean currents and wind patterns, signaling the possibility of widespread weather disruptions and natural disasters in multiple regions.
Southeast Asia is among the areas likely to be hit hardest, with forecasts pointing to sharply reduced rainfall and extended dry conditions.
RELEVANT SUSTAINABLE GOALS
What Makes a Super El Niño Different
In scientific terms, El Niño is classified as a Super El Niño when sea surface temperatures in key areas of the equatorial Pacific rise at least 2.0 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
Such events are relatively rare, occurring on average once every 10 to 15 years. When they do occur, their impacts tend to be more severe, longer-lasting and more geographically widespread than those of typical El Niño episodes.
Under normal conditions, strong trade winds push warm surface waters westward across the Pacific. During El Niño, those winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to move back toward the eastern Pacific near South America.
This year, however, unusually powerful westerly wind bursts have accelerated the movement of warm water eastward, increasing the likelihood that the developing El Niño could strengthen into a Super El Niño.
Rapid Release of Stored Ocean Heat
Tom Di Liberto, a former meteorologist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the phenomenon can release vast amounts of heat stored beneath the ocean during preceding La Niña phases.
He likened the process to lifting the lid off a boiling pot, as accumulated heat is rapidly transferred into the atmosphere.
The result is often a sharp rise in global average temperatures over a relatively short period.
Climate Change May Intensify the Event
Scientists say the expected Super El Niño could be more intense than past events due to human-induced climate change.
Eric Webb, a meteorologist at the U.S. Department of Defence, explained that rising greenhouse gas concentrations are limiting the Earth’s ability to release heat efficiently.
As a result, global temperatures may increase in step-like jumps, with each El Niño event raising the overall baseline.
This means the 2026–2027 Super El Niño could release more heat than major events in 1997–98 or 2015–16, both of which had significant global climate impacts.
2027 May Become the Hottest Year on Record
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather has forecast that the temperature boost from the developing Super El Niño could continue pushing global temperatures upward.
There is a high probability that 2027 could become the hottest year ever recorded, surpassing the record set in 2024.
This outlook aligns with the assessment of climate scientist Daniel Swain, who said current indicators point toward a strong to very strong El Niño, likely increasing the frequency of heatwaves worldwide.
For Southeast Asia, the implications could be particularly serious.
Super El Niño events typically bring prolonged dry spells and sharply reduced rainfall, raising the risk of drought, water shortages and agricultural disruption. As meteorologists continue to track evolving ocean and atmospheric signals, governments across the region are being urged to prepare for potential climate extremes.
The developing event highlights how global climate patterns and long-term warming trends are increasingly intersecting, shaping weather risks that extend far beyond the Pacific Ocean.
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