The 25th Winter Olympic Games are upon us, with Italy set to host the Games for the fourth time. The schedule at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics is set to look similar to previous iterations of the event: a mix of snow and ice sports held on what is meant to be mountainous, wintry terrain.

Except the snowy cold winter that comes to mind when you picture the Olympic Games may not be tenable for much longer. Climate change is reshaping winter sport worldwide. In the Northern Hemisphere, the winter season has shortened over the last 50 years, with low elevation regions warming at twice the rate of global warming, leading to widespread declines in snowpack.

Snow sport athletes are experiencing these changes firsthand. In recent years, several International Ski and Snowboard Federation World Cup events have been cancelled due to poor snow and unsafe conditions.

In 2023, nearly 300 concerned athletes sent a letter to the federation demanding more action on climate change and a “geographically reasonable” race schedule aligned with evolving weather realities.

A 2021 survey of 339 professional and Olympic winter athletes and coaches from 20 countries found 90 per cent were concerned about how climate change will affect the future of winter sports.

For the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, climate change could fundamentally impact where the Games can be held in the future. In 2022, the International Olympic Committee delayed the selection of the 2030 host city so that it could obtain a clearer understanding of the climate risk of potential future host locations.

Our 2024 study of 93 potential host locations — those with the necessary infrastructure in place to host such a spectacle — found that even with advanced snowmaking, a significant number would no longer have reliable snow in future. By the 2050s, the pool of potential Olympic hosts halved, and worryingly, few (17 to 31) had viable conditions to host the Paralympics.

Olympic and Paralympic peril

Our recent study explores a wide range of strategies to mitigate the risks posed by climate change to the Winter Olympics and Paralympics. Each strategy requires careful evaluation by Olympic and Paralympic committees, host cities and sport federations. Many involve trade-offs that can impact the ability of communities to host the games, the athlete and spectator experience, and potentially, the sustainability of the Games.

For example, the location of snow sports venues further away from the main host city where the indoor events are held could enhance climate reliability. However, that would increase travel times and emissions, as well as reduce the ability of spectators to see some competitions.

At this year’s Milano Cortina Games, venues are dispersed between sites across northern Italy. That will make it more challenging for athletes and fans to mingle, a setback to team unity and spirit. Several more athletes than usual won’t be able to attend the opening or closing ceremonies because they’ll be competing several hundred kilometres away.

Changing the schedule

Given that the Paralympics are held after the Olympics, they are especially at risk due to climate change. The “one bid, one city” agreement, which requires a host city to stage both Games at the same venues, may need to be reconsidered.

This agreement has elevated para sport to new levels of visibility and excellence. However, our research suggests that it cannot survive climate change, and losing the Paralympics would be a devastating setback for winter sport.

The solution? Adjust the schedule so the the Paralympics can be held earlier.

Our analysis revealed that holding the Winter Olympics and Paralympics three weeks earlier in the year has tremendous potential to increase the number of climate reliable hosts.

Moving the Olympics so the Games begin in late January or the first week of February, and the Paralympics in late February or the first week of March, nearly doubled the number of climate-reliable host locations for the Paralympics. That would help safeguard the “one bid, one city” arrangement through the mid-century and into the late century, if the Paris Climate Agreement’s goals are achieved.

Other options that ensure snow reliability include having the two events overlap, alternating the years the Games are hosted or putting the events in two separate locations in the same year. But each of these introduces political and logistics challenges.

What about snowmaking?