Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates has devoted more than $2 billion to funding zero-emissions technologies since 2015, when he founded venture firm Breakthrough Energy. A decade later, he’s adjusting his climate investment thesis to prioritize human welfare and urging investors and corporations to do the same.

Too much climate finance is dedicated to innovation that promises near-term emissions reductions at the expense of initiatives aimed at improving human health and livelihoods as global temperatures rise, Gates argues in a lengthy “Gates Notes” essay published Oct. 28.

As an example, he cites the decision of one low-income country in 2021 to ban synthetic fertilizers as a way to promote organic farming before cost-effective alternatives were available. Gates doesn’t name the country, Sri Lanka, but the nation was forced to reverse the policy just eight months later to stabilize its economy.  

“Farmers’ yields plummeted, there was much less food available and prices skyrocketed,” Gates wrote. “The country was hit by a crisis because the government valued reducing emissions above other important things.”

Dear COP30 attendees

Gates’ essay, titled “Three tough truths about climate,” is addressed to policymakers, businesses and other climate leaders planning to attend the COP30 gathering in mid-November. Those truths:

• “Climate change is a serious problem, but it will not be the end of civilization” — And civilization will need even more investment in low-carbon building materials, clean electricity generation, wildfire management systems and other infrastructure designed to withstand extreme weather. 
• “Temperature is not the best way to measure our progress on climate” — A better metric is quality of life, as expressed by the United Nations Human Development Index.
• “Health and prosperity are the best defense against climate change” — There’s a direct correlation between economic growth and a reduction in projected deaths related to rising temperatures. “When you look at the problem this way, it becomes easier to find the best buys in climate adaptation,” Gates said. At the top of the list: improvements for agriculture, such as climate-resilient crops and animals.

No time to waste

The timing is urgent, Gates said, as governments pull back aid for developing nations. His viewpoint is influenced by Breakthrough Energy’s work along with the Gates Foundation’s 25 years of philanthropy in many countries where climate change is taking its toll on human health and livelihoods in the form of extreme weather.  

“This is a chance to refocus on the metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change: improving lives,” Gates said in the essay. “Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries.”

Breakthrough Energy, which has invested in more than 150 companies over the past decade, focuses on innovations that erase the “green premium,” or the cost delta between low-carbon technologies and traditional approaches, in five areas: electricity, manufacturing, agriculture, transportation and buildings.

The twist is that impacts on the human condition will carry even more weight for Breakthrough. 

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