Dubai pledges “at risk”

Although it now feels like a different lifetime, it was only 18 months ago that UN climate boss Simon Stiell hailed “the beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era.

At COP28 in Dubai, all countries agreed to a suite of collective actions – including transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, tripling renewables, and halting and reversing deforestation – in response to their failure to keep climate goals on track as demonstrated by the Global Stocktake.

But that breakthrough is now “at risk” unless the delivery of those promises is urgently speeded up, Jennifer Morgan, an architect of that landmark COP28 deal and until recently Germany’s climate envoy, told an audience at London Climate Action Week.

Campaigners issue mass call for reforms to rescue UN climate process

How to do that? One obvious place would be the dedicated “dialogue on implementing the Global Stocktake outcomes” at the UN climate talks. But discussions in that negotiating track broke down at COP29 in the face of concerted resistance by oil-exporting countries. Now, in Bonn, they appear to be heading in a similar direction with no shared understanding even on the purpose of this space.

Developed countries, small-island states and the AILAC group of Latin American nations want to put the focus on “collective progress” towards meeting the GST goals, ideally by holding an annual ministerial summit and producing reports. But others including the Like-Minded Developing Countries – which counts China and Saudi Arabia among its members – and India have pushed back, saying this forum should not become an assessment mechanism or set new targets, according to a summary of discussions published by the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.

Brazil: Let’s deliver on our old climate promises before making new ones

The elephant in the room is finance. CAN International’s Shreeshan Venkatesh said the “weak decision” on that in Baku – where developed countries agreed to deliver $300 billion per year by 2035 – is “leaving a mark and stopping a constructive, progressive decision from being made here”.

Over in London, Ali Mohamed, Kenya’s climate envoy, warned that without addressing the “centrepiece of climate change” – finance – “it is difficult to get any significant outcome in Belém”.

The pressure is on Brazil, which only a week ago pinned the implementation of the GST goals to the top of its action agenda for this year’s summit. “The time of finger pointing is gone,” said COP30 CEO Ana Toni on Tuesday, calling for a “mature” debate on the energy transition.

Shuttling between stuffy rooms in Bonn and glitzy events in London over the last week, she said it was in the UK capital that she saw “real life moving”. “We haven’t been able as yet to translate that real life to the negotiation rooms,” Toni added. “The transition is inevitable. We need to capture that and bring it into politics”.

How that will be reflected into the final outcome in Belém is still far from clear. One option would be to produce a “cover decision” which often provides a home to stranded and politically -fraught discussions. In a recent letter, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) urged COP30 President André Correa do Lago to seriously consider that possibility.

But speaking to Climate Home last week, Toni made clear that COP30 would rather not go down that route. “We don’t want to use the very precious time of negotiators to get out of the room to negotiate something else rather than deepen the debate about the topics they are already discussing,” she said.

Türkiye makes COP31 case

With one day of the Bonn climate talks left, the fight between Australia and Türkiye over who gets to host COP31 next year has yet to be resolved – despite strong support for Australia from the “Western Europe and Others” group of countries that will make the decision.

Many expected Türkiye to drop its bid, but it doubled down today, with a major charm offensive. Its delegation in Bonn held two receptions – with soft drinks and snacks – and delivered a presentation on why the southern Turkish resort city of Antalya and its huge Expo centre should host COP31.

Part of its pitch is that Antalya has lots of hotels and flight connections – something COP30’s host city Belém is sorely lacking. Its presentation claimed it has 628,000 beds, golf courses, great food and tourist attractions like the Roman ruins of Side.

“Antalya is ready to host a low-carbon global gathering,” the Hollywood-style voiceover said in a promotional video over a graphic of planes converging on Antalya. The argument is that its “central location” will minimise air miles, while Türkiye sees itself as a bridge between East and West, and developed and developing countries.

The presentation promoted Türkiye’s green credentials as an “economy not dependent on fossil fuels”. It wasn’t mentioned explicitly