New research shows that hotter temperatures and erratic rainfall are pressuring cocoa production in West African countries that supply around 70% of the main ingredient for chocolate, quadrupling the price of cocoa over the past two years and making Valentine’s Day a costlier enterprise worldwide.

Studies released this week by charity Christian Aid and nonprofit news organisation Climate Central found that extreme temperatures have become more frequent in the region, affecting cacao trees which do not thrive well in temperatures above an optimal range of 18–32 degrees Celsius.

Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central, urged sweethearts swapping chocolate on Valentine’s Day to consider the broader impact of climate change. “These heat extremes, driven by burning fossil fuels, are not just affecting the environment – they’re directly impacting the farmers and communities who rely on cacao production for their livelihoods,” she said.

High heat drives record prices

An analysis of daily maximum temperatures over the past decade revealed that climate change added on average at least three weeks above 32C each year, adding six extra weeks of high temperatures in 2024 alone, according to Climate Central. This occurred during the main cacao crop season from October to March in the West African cocoa-producing nations of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria.

In late December 2024, a new record for cocoa prices was set at $12,605 per tonne and they have remained stubbornly high since, Christian Aid said.

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Excessive heat significantly hinders photosynthesis and increases water stress, the Climate Central report emphasised, resulting in shrivelled flowers and smaller, rotted cacao pods, further reducing the quality and quantity of the harvest.

While high heat is not conducive for cacao cultivation, more erratic and heavier rainfall also degrades growing conditions, encouraging the spread of disease and reducing trees’ pod production, Christian Aid said in a separate report.

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Consistent warm and humid conditions are ideal for the crop’s growth, requiring annual rainfall of between 1,500 and 2,000 mm, with a dry spell lasting no longer than three months.

Changing weather patterns have tightened global cocoa supplies and fuelled rising prices for chocolate – a by-product of cocoa – yet that has not put off sweet-toothed consumers. The chocolate market grew by 3.8% between 2018 and 2023, the researchers found. Last year, it was worth $109 billion – and it is estimated to grow to $145 billion by the end of this decade.

Adaption limits

Farmers in West Africa are finding it hard to adapt to the shifting climate – and through their associations, have called for direct access to more financial support. Only 0.3% of climate finance was targeted at family farmers globally in 2021, according to the group Family Farmers for Climate Action.

Industry officials have