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SINGAPORE — While the impending La Niña weather phenomenon is expected to bring wetter conditions to Singapore in the second half of 2024, meteorologists warn that the island nation may not experience much relief from the sweltering heat that has persisted due to the lingering effects of its counterpart, El Niño.
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La Niña, translated as “Little Girl” in Spanish, typically brings cooler and wetter weather patterns to Southeast Asia and Australia, in contrast to the drier and hotter conditions associated with El Niño. The two phases alternate every few years, forming the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
La Niña 2024
According to the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), the peak temperature impact from the recent El Niño occurred during its decaying phase between March and April 2024. Currently, the ENSO status is neutral, but the MSS forecasts a 60 to 70 percent chance of La Niña conditions developing in the second half of 2024.
“Over the last few months, cooler sub-surface ocean temperatures have been observed in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and this is a precursor to La Niña,” the MSS stated.
Despite the anticipated arrival of La Niña, the MSS cautioned that Singapore’s annual average temperature for 2024 could either surpass or fall below the record-breaking 28.2 degrees Celsius (82.8 degrees Fahrenheit) set in 2023, depending on the strength and timing of the weather phenomenon’s peak.
“Additionally, there is the long-term warming trend that needs to be considered,” the MSS added, referring to global warming’s impact.
Dr. Dhrubajyoti Samanta, a senior research fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s Earth Observatory of Singapore, noted that the available predictions indicate the emergence of a weak La Niña. “If it is not very strong, its impact will also not be very strong,” he said.
While La Niña typically brings more rainfall to Singapore, particularly during the drier Southwest monsoon season between June and September, the MSS warned that occasional periods of dry and warm weather can still be expected.
The agency also cautioned that while the likelihood of transboundary haze is usually lower during a La Niña event, it remains possible depending on the location of fires and wind direction.
The previous La Niña episode, which lasted from 2020 to early 2023, brought record-breaking rainfall to Singapore, with 412 millimeters (16.2 inches) recorded in October 2022 — the highest in more than 40 years. Nevertheless, the annual temperature in 2022 was still the 10th highest since records began in 1929.
Dr. Dhrubajyoti emphasized that El Niño merely exacerbated the effects of global warming, stating, “Therefore, even in the presence of La Niña, we cannot ignore the ongoing warming and the excess heat that is already stored in the atmosphere and oceans.”
As Singapore prepares for the potential impacts of La Niña, authorities are urging residents to remain vigilant and take precautions against the lingering heat and potential weather extremes.
Lead image courtesy of ThilakPiyadigama from Getty Images
