This was the scenario offered up by expert environmental scenario modeller and Indonesia’s SMART Research Institute Sustainability Research Department Head Bram Hadiwijaya during the recent International Conference of Oil Palm and Environment (ICOPE) 2025.

“Based on a simple non-linear model, the prediction is that climate change will cause a net profit loss of US$8 to US$11 per hectare of oil palm plantation for very 1°C increase in temperature,” he told the floor.

“Considering there are millions of hectares of these plantations in markets like Malaysia, Indonesia and more, the profit loss is set to be in the millions of dollars as well – and we need to bear in mind that this prediction is only based on variations in temperature and rainfall, yet there are many other parameters that can come into play, so the real losses could be even greater.”

Oil palm trees can grow and efficiently produce good quality palm oil, such as that used for food production and cooking, at temperatures of up to 32°C – but temperatures in producing countries have been beyond this on a regular basis, with Malaysia averaging 35°C or more during the day and Indonesia recording its ‘hottest year in history’ in 2024.

“Recent studies have shown that temperature increases of 1°C to 4°C can decrease production significantly – and in 2022, the palm oil industry has actually already clearly seen the negative impacts of rising temperatures on yields,” Hadiwijaya added.

“It has also been shown that at temperatures beyond 38°C, photosynthesis decreases significantly and this is a direct impact on the trees.

“But one area that is just as important when it comes to yields is in terms of the labourers and workers that industry needs to harvest the palm fruits to be converted into oil – heat waves in recent years have affected more