Holding a COP in the Amazon, the world’s largest tropical rainforest, has raised hopes that this year’s UN climate summit in Brazil will be free from the shadow of fossil fuels, after the last two were held in major oil-producing countries. But even as Brazil faces extreme heat and flooding, its government has signalled it wants to extract more climate-warming oil.

“I dream of a day when we no longer need fossil fuels, but that day is still far away. Humanity will depend on them for a long time,” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said last week during a speech in Belém, the capital of Pará and the host city for November’s COP30.

This Tuesday, Brazil’s National Energy Policy Council, which brings together federal ministers, approved the Latin American nation’s entry into the Charter of Cooperation (CoC) between oil-producing countries, a discussion forum linked to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+).

It provides a platform to “facilitate dialogue and exchange views regarding conditions and developments in the global oil and energy markets”, according to OPEC. Despite lacking binding obligations, Brazil’s entry into the CoC has brought backlash from climate groups.

“This is a disappointing setback for everyone who relies on the Brazilian government to lead a just transition away from fossil fuel exploration – an essential step if we are to survive on this planet,” said André Guimarães, director of the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM).

According to a report by the climate campaign group 350.org, Brazil became the third-largest country in terms of investment in expanding its oil and gas sector last year, shortly after countries agreed at the COP28 conference in Dubai to “transition away from fossil fuels”. 

Japan disregarded widespread calls to raise its 2035 emissions goal 

Fossil fuel growth

If Brazil were to maintain only the oil wells it currently has in operation, the country’s production would decline by 64% by 2035. However, with new exploration projects set to be licensed, Brazil’s oil production is expected to increase by 36% in the next decade, according to analysis by 350.org based on International Energy Agency (IEA) data. 

President Lula responded to criticism that his support for oil would tarnish Brazil’s leadership at COP30. “Look at the United States; see if France is worried. No, they are exploiting as much as they can. It’s England exploiting [oil] in Guyana and France in Suriname,” he said, pointing out that neighbouring countries are already profiting from oil in the Amazon region, working with Europe-based multinationals.

In his speeches, Lula has argued that the profits from new oil exploration efforts will be used to finance the energy transition. However, this claim has been met with scepticism from environmentalists. 

“It’s like recommending smoking twice as much to raise more money for lung cancer treatment,” said Caetano Scannavino, from the Amazonian NGO Saúde e Alegria. 

In 2010, Lula’s previous government passed a law stipulating that revenues from oil exploration in the pre-salt fields – a new source of wealth for Brazil at the time – would be invested in health and education. However, amid an economic crisis in the years after, the government redirected those funds to cover other expenses such as public debt.

Amazon oil

Since taking office for his third non-consecutive term, this time around Lula’s government has been seeking an environmental license to drill an exploratory oil well in the Foz do Amazonas Basin, located along the coast of Amapá state, in an area of extreme environmental sensitivity.

The license was denied early in his administration, in May 2023. Experts at IBAMA (the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources, the federal government’s environmental agency) concluded that Petrobras, the state-owned oil company, had failed to present a solid impact mitigation and emergency response plan. 

Additionally, IBAMA’s President Rodrigo Agostinho noted the risks of exploring the area without first conducting a Sedimentary Area Environmental Assessment (AAAS). This includes an assessment of sensitive ecosystems, biodiversity hotspots and affected communities to determine potential environmental and social impacts.

Since then, three ministers – Alexandre Padilha for Institutional Relations, Rui Costa who is Chief of Staff, and Alexandre Silveira for Mines and Energy – have been negotiating a political agreement with the Ministry of the Environment, led by Marina Silva. 

Seen as a roadblock by other ministries, Silva has repeatedly stated that IBAMA’s decision will be purely technical. However, sources within the government told Climate Home that the license is expected to be granted by the end of March.

Big polluters funnel 75% of profits to shareholders, not clean energy

Pressure from above

Even if IBAMA’s technical staff reject Petrobras’ revised plans, the agency’s leadership co