All but one of South Africa’s nine provinces, including coal-dependent Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Free State, have limited or no plans to support communities and local workers through a green transition, meaning poorer groups could be left behind, new analysis has shown. 

South Africa was the first country to sign a multi-billion-dollar Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) with rich countries in 2021, aimed at supporting an economy-wide transition away from coal towards clean energy in a way that supports communities and workers who now rely on the fossil fuel industry as well as women, youth and children.

That makes the country a point of reference for how to achieve a green transition that is socially and economically fair. So far it has created a national just energy transition investment plan, signed its Climate Change Act into law, and launched a just energy transition funding platform to connect grant funders with projects to help workers acquire new skills or develop communities in innovative ways.

But a new report by international research group Net Zero Tracker and South South North, a South Africa-based non-profit, said eight provinces – Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Free State, Limpopo, Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and North West – are lagging behind on just transition in their local climate plans despite coal dependence in some provinces and high unemployment in the others. 

The analysis – which reviewed 32 government entities at national, provincial and city level, plus 18 major corporations in South Africa – highlighted significant opportunities to support poorer regions that are reliant on coal production and coal power and those least-prepared to deal with a shift away from high-carbon energy. 

The rich province of Western Cape was the only one leading in climate action, with a comprehensive net zero target and extensive just transition considerations integrated into regional policies. Other regions that either have net zero or emissions reduction targets are KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo and Gauteng, although they are falling behind on just transition.

Out of the 11 cities reviewed in the analysis, only the two biggest – Cape Town and Johannesburg – had robust just transition considerations. The others were found to have minimal or no just transition focus.

The researchers said there is a need for more structured plans in coal-reliant provinces especially to support workers at mines and power plants fired by the polluting fuel. 

Blessing Manale, acting executive director of South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), told Climate Home “there is a disjoint between national and local policies “, despite the country’s strong climate commitments and its aim to ensure that the risks and opportunities in the transition are “equitably shared”, with affected workers able to pursue sustainable livelihoods in the future.

Samson Mbewe, the paper’s lead author from South South North, told Climate Home that “without such integration, poorer provinces risk being excluded from the socio-economic benefits of decarbonisation, exacerbating existing inequalities.”

In a 2023 Climate Home article, coal workers in Ermelo, a community in Mpumalanga, said they felt left out of the country’s energy transition. With 80% of the community’s 80,000 residents employed by state-owned energy and transport companies, residents fear their livelihoods will be gone when the Camden coal power station in the area goes offline by 2030. 

Mbewe said Mpumalanga faces a significant risk of job losses and community destabilisation without robust just transition measures to help workers find new sources of income, such as retraining, social support and investment in alternative industries. “Women and informal workers in these regions are particularly vulnerable, as they often lack access to social safety nets and alternative employment opportunities,” he said.

Local governments struggling

Manale of the Presidential Climate Commission said climate action in South Africa is “stymied by governance, resource and capacity issues” that impact the state in general. But, he added, local government authorities face the biggest challenges in implementing effective climate policies, including “capacity constraints, corruption and structural failures, variable political-will and mixed messaging”, as set out in a report by his body on the state of climate action.

There is a need to bolster political will across government tiers, as well as “aligning local initiatives with national directives” to improve climate responses, he added. Stronger monitoring, evaluation and learning processes could help track the effectiveness of policy implementation and its contribution to